Christine Lagarde: Panel remarks about the European economy during a discussion on the global economic outlook at the World Economic Forum

Panel remarks about the European economy during a discussion on the global economic outlook at the World Economic Forum Skip to: Skip to navigation Skip to content Skip to footer EN Български Čeština Dansk Deutsch Eλληνικά English Español Eesti keel Suomi Français Gaeilge Hrvatski Magyar Italiano Lietuvių Latviešu Malti Nederlands Polski Português Română Slovenčina Slovenščina Svenska Menu Monetary policy & markets Monetary policy & markets Our monetary policy strategy, the tools we use and the impact they have Overview of monetary policy and markets Quick links What is monetary policy? Strategy review Asset purchase programmes Latest monetary policy press conference 23 July 2026 Introduction Benefits of price stability Scope of monetary policy Transmission mechanism Decisions, statements & accounts Monetary policy strategy Strategy review Medium-term orientation Two per cent inflation target Economic, monetary and financial analysis Economic analysis Monetary and financial analysis Monetary policy operations Open market operations TLTROs Asset purchase programmes Securities lending Pandemic emergency purchase programme Standing facilities Minimum reserves Two-tier system Euro central bank liquidity lines Swap lines EUREP Chronology of Eurosystem liquidity lines Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) Liquidity analysis Collateral Eligibility criteria and assessment Marketable assets Non-marketable assets List of eligible marketable assets User guide Collateral management Eligible SSSs Eligible links Eligible triparty agents Risk mitigation ECAF Risk control Haircut categories Valuation Loan-level requirements Contacts Structure of the euro area economy Economic policy Fiscal policies External trade Effective exchange rates Financial structure Financial markets Financial intermediaries Economic diversity Labour market Market contact groups Bond market (BMCG) Money market (MMCG) Debt Issuance Market Contact Group (DIMCG) ECB Operations managers group (ECB OMG) Foreign exchange (FXCG) Institutional Investor Dialogue (IID) Monetary Analysis Contact Group (MACG) Payments & financial stability Payments & financial stability Insights into our work on financial stability and payments and market infrastructures Overview of payments and financial stability Quick links Digital euro Payments news & events Market contact groups TARGET professional use documents and links Latest Financial Stability Review 5 June 2025 Payments TARGET Services Shared features T2 Facts and figures Governance T2S Governance Facts and figures Pricing TIPS Cross-border payments Governance Facts and figures Onboarding ECMS Governance Pontes Governance TARGET professional use documents & links Shared features documents & links T2 documents & links T2S documents & links TIPS documents & links ECMS documents & links Pontes documents & links Tokenisation and DLT Appia Exploratory work Retail payments Retail payments strategy ECB as a catalyst SEPA Instant payments Market contact groups Collateral management harmonisation SCoRE Implementation FAQ AMI-SeCo Cyber resilience Financial market infrastructures TIBER-EU Euro Cyber Resilience Board Oversight Payment systems TARGET2-Securities Electronic payments Securities settlement systems and central counterparties Critical service providers Correspondent and custodian banks SecuRe Pay forum Reserve management services Key aspects Range of services Cash professionals Cash handling Authentication devices Recirculation of banknotes Common detector interface specifications Banknote manufacturer accreditation Financial stability Introduction to financial stability Macroprudential Measures Financial stability contact groups Statistics Statistics Access to all ECB statistics and background information Overview of ECB statistics Quick links Key figures ECB Data Portal Statistical releases PRESS RELEASE - ECB launches pilot project for research access to confidential statistical data 13 March 2025 Frequently accessed Euro exchange rates Key ECB interest rates Euro short-term rate (€STR) Interest rate benchmarks Working group on euro risk-free rates Inflation Euro area yield curves All statistics & background All key statistics All data services Data reporting & standards Governance and quality framework Co-operation and standards Banks’ data reporting IReF JBRC BIRD AnaCredit AnaCredit Q&A Public consultations Banking industry dialogue on ESCB statistics and integrated reporting SDMX – statistical data exchange model INEXDA - granular data network The euro The euro All you need to know about our common currency Overview of the euro Quick links Cash professionals Banknote and coins statistics Euro exchange rates Redesign process of our future banknotes Digital euro What it is Digital euro and privacy How it works Why we need it Innovation platform Pilot Timeline and progress In-depth information Governance and stakeholder engagement Technical documents and research Scheme rulebook Frequently asked questions Cash The Eurosystem cash strategy The role of cash Issuance and circulation Access to and acceptance of cash Frequently asked questions Banknotes Future banknotes Current banknotes Denominations Design elements Security features Anti-counterfeiting Banknote production and stocks Damaged and inked-stained banknotes Environment, health and safety Product environmental footprint Research and development Images and reproduction rules Information and training materials Coins €2 €1 50 cent 20 cent 10 cent 5 cent 2 cent 1 cent Common sides €2 commemorative coins Security features Collector coins Joining the euro area Bulgaria (2026) Croatia (2023) Lithuania (2015) Latvia (2014) Estonia (2011) Slovakia (2009) Cyprus (2008) Malta (2008) Slovenia (2007) Initial changeover (2002) Exchanging national cash Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Latvia Italy Lithuania Luxembourg Malta The Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Visually impaired people Research Research In-depth studies and expert analyses covering diverse topics and fields Overview of ECB research Quick links Conferences & seminars Opportunities for researchers Research Bulletin Economic research Research agenda Monetary policy, strategy and implementation Fiscal policy and governance within EMU International macro and finance Real sector and microeconomic analysis Forecasting and business cycle analysis Macro-finance, systemic risk and macroprudential policy Financial institutions, microprudential policy, financial markets and payments Opportunities for researchers Wim Duisenberg Fellowship Regular Research Visitors Lamfalussy Fellowship Summer Research Graduate Programme Student Research Traineeship Programme Legal Research Legal conferences and seminars Legal Research Programme Research papers Papers by authors ECB researchers Research networks News & publications News & Publications Browse all news & publications News Press releases Statistical releases Speeches Interviews The ECB Blog Podcasts & webcasts Payments news & events Press hub Publications Governing Council decisions Monetary policy decisions Other decisions Monetary policy accounts Economic Bulletin Articles Focus Monthly Bulletin Macroeconomic projections Annual reports & financial statements Annual Report Annual Accounts Eurosystem balance sheet Weekly financial statements Disaggregated data Financial stability publications Financial Stability Review Special features & boxes Macroprudential Bulletin Research publications Research Bulletin Working papers Discussion papers Occasional papers Legal working papers Statistics papers Other publications Letters to MEPs Convergence Report International Role of the Euro Events & calendars Monetary policy press conference Monetary policy statements Monetary policy statements at a glance Conferences & seminars Forum on Central Banking Young Economist Prize Past editions Civil society engagement Calendars Weekly schedule Meetings of the Governing Council and the General Council Statistical calendars Money, banking and financial markets Euro area economic and financial developments by institutional sector External transactions and positions Prices, output, demand and labour Government finance Supervisory and prudential statistics Eurosystem's tender operations Reserve maintenance period ECB banking supervision About us About us All about us Our leadership Executive Board Governing Council General Council Supervisory Board Our organisation ECB, ESCB and the Eurosystem ECB mission Eurosystem mission Strategic intents Organisational principles Our tasks and responsibilities Monetary policy Statistics Financial stability and macroprudential policy Our tasks Strategy Institutional framework Banknotes Payments & securities European relations European cooperation EMU economic governance International affairs International relations and analysis International central bank cooperation Foreign reserves and own funds Foreign exchange operations Organisation chart of the ECB Capital subscription Corporate governance Eurosystem financial literacy network Our values Independence Transparency Integrity Ethics Network of Multilateral Organizations (ENMO) Accountability Our history, arts and culture Our history 25 years of the ECB Economic and Monetary Union EU enlargement European Union Archives Committee of Governors European Monetary Cooperation Fund Delors Committee European Monetary Institute European Central Bank Arts and culture Our legal framework EUR-Lex - Frequently asked questions Institutional framework Climate change and the ECB Our climate and nature plan Climate-related financial disclosures Managing climate-related risks Supporting the green transition Fostering wider action Our approach Environmental protection Climate Insurance Protection Gap Sanctions imposed by the ECB Procurement Tenders Archive Electronic tendering system Access to documents Public Register of Documents Contacts Address ECB public holidays ECB & You ECB & You All about ECB & You Explainers Key things to know about the ECB ECB and beyond Our currency, the euro Making payments Monetary policy Unconventional monetary policy instruments Banking supervision Climate change and the ECB Test your knowledge Youth initiatives Girls' IT Bootcamp Financial literacy in Europe The gender gap in financial literacy Everyone needs stability ECB & You broadcasts ECB in Frankfurt Ask us Visit us Main building Careers Careers All about careers Vacancies Who we are About the ECB Meet our people Life in Frankfurt Why we value diversity Women@ECB Diversity networks What we offer Benefits & rewards Contract types Fixed-term Short-term ESCB/IO Other Traineeship Graduate programme ECB Scholarship for Women ECB Scholarship for Ukrainian graduates How you can join us How to apply How we hire You have been selected, what next? Fixed-term employee Short-term employee Trainee Cost-free secondee FAQs Search Menu ANYTIME PAST MONTH PAST YEAR Search Options Image Preview Sort by ANYTIME PAST MONTH PAST YEAR Suggestions Home Media Explainers Research & Publications Statistics Monetary Policy The €uro Payments & Markets Careers Suggestions Sort by Relevance Date Christine Lagarde The President of the European Central Bank SPEECH Panel remarks about the European economy during a discussion on the global economic outlook at the World Economic Forum Panel remarks by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum Geneva, 19 August 2026 Europe’s post-war growth model rested on three mutually reinforcing pillars. Today, all three are weakening as the international environment changes. The first pillar was expanding global trade. Europe became one of the world’s most open economies – roughly twice as open to trade as the United States – and benefited greatly from globalisation. [ 1 ] But expanding trade can no longer be taken for granted. Last year alone, more than 2,500 trade restrictions were implemented globally. [ 2 ] The second pillar was Europe’s strength in mid-tech manufacturing, supported in part by access to relatively cheap energy. That advantage is also being eroded. China has been steadily moving up the value chain. The country now competes directly with the euro area in close to 40% of the sectors in which we have a comparative advantage, compared with around 25% in the early 2000s. [ 3 ] And the cheap energy on which European industry once relied – including that from Russian gas – has faded. Last year, EU electricity prices for energy-intensive industries were on average more than twice US levels and around 50% above those in China. [ 4 ] The third pillar was a stable, rules-based global order, underpinned by a US security umbrella. That environment allowed European supply chains to deepen, and enabled firms to organise investment around efficiency rather than resilience. Today, that global order is under pressure. Geopolitical tensions are bringing critical dependencies and chokepoints into sharper focus, while Europe faces growing security threats on its doorstep. When economic dependencies can be weaponised or when perceptions of deterrence weaken, concerns about resilience enter economic decisions directly. Firms invest less when capital is seen as less safe, weighing on output and consumption. [ 5 ] Taken together, these shifts suggest that Europe’s post-war growth model is eroding. And it is unlikely to return to the form we once knew. But Europe still has substantial strengths to build on. Even in the face of trade headwinds, the EU has the world’s largest network of trade agreements [ 6 ] – and that network is expanding, with agreements recently concluded or advanced with partners including India, Indonesia, Australia, Mexico and Mercosur. [ 7 ] At home, we retain world-class manufacturing capabilities, including global leadership in areas such as lithography and precision optics. We have a highly skilled workforce too. In Germany, for example, 35% of bachelor’s graduates are in STEM fields – the highest share among OECD countries. [ 8 ] And, crucially, we have an integrated market of 27 Member States and 450 million consumers – the largest among advanced economies. That market is becoming more important as the sources of growth shift. Last year the euro area economy grew by 1.5%, driven entirely by domestic demand. In 2026 it has continued to grow despite the energy shock, with domestic demand contributing positively to the quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026. [ 9 ] Domestic demand is projected to remain the main source of growth for the euro area this year. [ 10 ] The task now is to turn that domestic resilience into a more durable source of growth over the long run. This requires Europe to make better use of the scale of its home market. When firms can grow across the EU, they can invest more efficiently and push innovation further. That ultimately makes them more productive. Scale is particularly important as new technologies reshape the sources of productivity growth. In some respects, Europe is well placed to make the most of new technologies. We have a world-class research and knowledge base. The EU accounts for around 6% of the world’s population but as many as 15% of its researchers. It also produces almost one-fifth of the world’s most-cited scientific publications. [ 11 ] The challenge lies in turning that knowledge into commercial success and ensuring that new technologies diffuse across the economy. Too often, the barriers that prevent firms from scaling also hold back that diffusion. We have seen the consequences before. Europe largely missed out on the first digital revolution, as the commercial gains from the spread of information and communication technologies were captured disproportionately elsewhere. We cannot afford to repeat that experience with artificial intelligence (AI), the second digital revolution. There are already encouraging signs that European firms are investing in AI. Survey evidence suggests that firms in the euro area expect to allocate an average of around 9% of their total investment to AI this year. [ 12 ] The question is whether Europe can create the conditions for that investment to spread and scale. Two barriers are especially critical. The first is fragmentation in the Single Market. Firms still compete too much within national borders, which weakens the competitive pressure to adopt new technologies. Recent research finds that, in the euro area, a 1 percentage point rise in the perceived share of domestic competitors investing in AI raises a firm’s own expected AI investment rate by around 0.6 percentage points. But the study also finds that those competitive effects still largely stop at national borders. [ 13 ] Removing internal barriers would allow that competitive pressure to apply across Europe. The second barrier is fragmentation in capital markets. Innovative European firms can often finance their early growth, but a gap tends to open as they scale. According to the European Investment Bank, EU and San Francisco-based scale-ups raise broadly similar amounts during their first five years of operations. But by the tenth year, EU scale-ups have raised roughly 50% less. [ 14 ] Fragmented capital markets can also incentivise young, innovative firms to vote with their feet. Some 12% of EU scale-ups have relocated outside the EU, most notably to the United States. [ 15 ] These two barriers reinforce each other. Fragmented markets reduce the returns on scaling in Europe, while fragmented finance makes that scale harder to fund. The result is fewer firms growing to global size and slower diffusion of new technologies across the economy. Europe is moving to tackle both barriers – with creativity on the Single Market and urgency on capital markets. For the Single Market, one prominent proposal is “EU Inc.” – an optional EU-wide corporate legal form that would allow companies to incorporate once and then operate under a single set of rules across the EU. [ 16 ] The aim is to make it possible for a young firm to start European and scale European, rather than having to navigate different national regimes as it grows. But EU Inc. addresses only one part of the problem. The wider task is to remove the barriers that fragment the Single Market, so that competitive pressure and new technologies can spread more widely across existing firms too. Firms that can scale across Europe need capital that can scale with them. That is why Europe is now moving more decisively to integrate its capital markets. EU leaders have called for the co-legislators to reach agreement on the market integration package by the end of 2026, moving Europe closer to a genuine single market for capital. [ 17 ] We already have many of the ingredients for stronger long-term growth. Turning European size into European scale would help innovative firms grow at home, allow new technologies to spread faster and boost productivity. In doing so, it would help make domestic demand a more lasting engine of growth. Measured by trade as a share of GDP. The figure pertains to the period January to October in 2025. See Figure 1 in Kose, M.A. and Mulabdic, A. (2025), “ Global trade’s rollercoaster ride ”, World Bank Blogs , 11 December. See Chart 3 in Al-Haschimi, A. et al. (2024), “ Why competition with China is getting tougher than ever ”, The ECB Blog , 3 September. IEA (2026), Prices . Clancy, D. and Lozej, M. (2026), “ Spending on the frontline: The macroeconomic implications of rising defence expenditure ”, Research Technical Paper , Vol. 2026, No 3, Central Bank of Ireland, 10 March. European Commission, Trade . Among other trade agreements. See European Commission, Negotiations and agreements . Specifically, in the share of bachelor’s or equivalent graduates in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) subjects. See OECD (2025), Education at a Glance 2025: Germany , 9 September. Eurostat (2026), GDP up by 0.4% and employment up by 0.1% in the euro area , 14 August. ECB (2026), Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area , June. European Commission (2026), “ Investing to shape our future ”, Horizon Europe factsheet , February. The question was asked in the December 2025 SAFE round and referred to firms’ expected AI investment over the next 12 months. See Ferrando, A., Lamboglia, S., Rariga, J. and Schmidt, M. (2026), “ Adoption and investment in AI across the euro area ”, Occasional Paper Series , No 395, ECB. The authors argue that reducing barriers to knowledge-sharing across regions could support technology diffusion. See Baumann, U. et al. (2026), “ Innovation without borders ”, VoxEU column , 11 July. European Investment Bank (2024), The scale-up gap: Financial market constraints holding back innovative firms in the European Union , July. See Figure 23, ibid. European Commission, EU Inc.: A new harmonised corporate legal regime . European Council (2026), Boosting EU competitiveness: the way forward , March. Related topics Protectionism Capital markets union Innovation Trade Economic development Euro area Disclaimer Please note that related topic tags are currently available for selected content only. CONTACT European Central Bank Directorate General Communications Sonnemannstrasse 20 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany +49 69 1344 7455 media@ecb.europa.eu Reproduction is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. Media contacts Are you happy with this page? Yes No What made you unhappy? Page not working Information not useful Design not attractive Something else Thank you for letting us know! Useful links About us Work with us Explainers Press photos Contacts Where to find us Using our site Disclaimer & Copyright Technical updates Responsible disclosure Corporate Policies Data Protection Privacy statement for the website Cookies policy Accessibility statement Language policy Site directory Copyright 2026, European Central Bank Follow us Our website uses cookies We use functional cookies to store user preferences; analytics cookies to improve website performance; third-party cookies set by third-party services integrated into the website. You have the choice to accept or reject them. For more information or to review your preference on the cookies and server logs we use, we invite you to: Read our privacy statement Learn more about how we use cookies I understand and I accept the use of cookies I do not accept the use of cookies Thank you! Thank you! We have updated our privacy policy We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. See what has changed in our privacy policy I understand and I accept the use of cookies I do not accept the use of cookies Your cookie preference has expired We are always working to improve this website for our users. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. Learn more about how we use cookies I understand and I accept the use of cookies I do not accept the use of cookies This feature requires cookies. Modify

Nøglefraser.

Fuld tekst.